Greece needs exports to generate economic growth. The press often touts the country’s newfound focus on overseas markets. But the numbers show a less positive and more complicated picture.
ELSTAT’s national accounts data show that Greece has, in fact, experienced an export boom. Exports of goods and services, which contracted sharply in 2009, have risen every year since then. Within a three-year period, exports have grown by €7.8 billion, or 17.5%, an impressive performance. Yet on a real basis, exports in 2012 were a mere 3% higher than in 2009, meaning the “export boom” is, in fact, mostly a matter of inflation. What is worse, exports on a real basis declined in 2012.
The data from the Bank of Greece paint a similar picture, albeit with more granularity. Services, which have historically made up 2/3 of exports, have performed poorly in recent years—in part due to tourism (see here) and in part due to shipping. Goods, by contrast, have shown a clearer upward trend, rising at an average 13% a year. In other words, the growth in nominal exports is really the result of higher exports of goods.
On closer inspection, however, this growth is somewhat spurious. Of the €6.7 billion increase from 2009 to 2012, almost 2/3 comes from higher oil exports. The rest (€2.3 billion) are the result of other, non-oil exported goods.
ELSTAT’s national accounts data show that Greece has, in fact, experienced an export boom. Exports of goods and services, which contracted sharply in 2009, have risen every year since then. Within a three-year period, exports have grown by €7.8 billion, or 17.5%, an impressive performance. Yet on a real basis, exports in 2012 were a mere 3% higher than in 2009, meaning the “export boom” is, in fact, mostly a matter of inflation. What is worse, exports on a real basis declined in 2012.
Since the beginning of Greek crisis, many efforts have been made in order to empower Greek exporting. I took a look in a greek export database and understand that more and more producers are trying to export their products in foreign countries. I am sure this trend will continue!
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